will be posting tennis selections in 2 systems:
a) aggressive wagering on big favs
b) flat stakes on average fa
Now, I know what you will say - huge favs, small odds,
no chance of winning long term. I think this approach
is wrong: if the odds represent true chance of winning
and we see value (odds not corresponding with our
own prediction), then it can be profitable if we are
correct. It doesnt matter if we take huge favs,
big dogs or ATS around $1.9-1.95.
What is meant by aggressive wagering? We will be
starting with small bank and will be betting 20% of it
on every match. If more than 5 matches will be selected
at the same time, the amount will be split accordingly.
After everz day, the bank will be re-calculated. When
higher (winning) 30% of profit will be taken out and
counted as "spare-account".
No chasing losses, no parlays.
OK, lets start.
A) starting bank: 100 pts
Bet 1: Ferrer to beat Dell Acqua @ 1,11 - 25 pts to win 2,75 pts (Ordina Open)
Bet 2: Spadea to beat Slabinsky @ 1,26 - 25 pts to win 6,5 pts (Slazenger Open)
B) starting bank: 100 pts
Bet 1: Vaidisova to beat Govortsova @ 1,46 - 2 pts to win 0,92 pt (International Open)
Results day 1:
A)ggressive system:
Bet 1: won
Bet 2: won
Starting bank: 100 pts
Current bank: 106,47 pts
Spare bank: 2,78 pts
Bank increase: 6,47%
My goal is to increase the bank at least 20 times till the end of this season
and hopefully 40-50 times per following 365 days.
Please note that increasing spare bank doesn't affect other results (current bank, bank increase). It is solely meant for taking the part of profit for some other activities :-) and/or having it as a backup in case the system bank going bust and I will be willing to start over from some point - xx points.
@bookie_man (and others)
Please follow very cautiously as this has not been tested long enough. If I don't start well, the full bankroll can be destroyed pretty soon. I hope this ain't happen ;-)
B) system
Bet 1: lost
Starting bank: 100 pts
Current bank: 98 pts
Bank decrease: 2%
A)ggressive system:
Bet 3: Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Carolina Wozniacki @ 1,24 - 26,6 pts to win 6,38 pts
Bet 4: Elena Dementieva to beat Sara Errani @ 1,12 - 26,6 pts to win 3,19 pts
B) flat stakes (bank stands at 98 pts)
Bet 2: Guillermo Canas to beat Rohan Bopanna @ 1,56 - 2 pts to win 1,12 pt (Ordina Open)
Results day 2:
A)ggressive system:
Bet 3: lost
Bet 4: won
Starting bank: 100 pts
Current bank: 83,06 pts
Spare bank: 2,78 pts
Bank decrease: 16,94%
B) system
Bet 2: won
Starting bank: 100 pts
Current bank: 99,12 pts
Bank decrease: 0,88%
Kuznetsova spoiled 3-0 clean sweep and put me down more than 20% from highest point in A-system. Hope to recover soon from this. Kuznetsova was leading 2:1 and had 3 breakpoints at 0:40 in 1st set but since then, it was one-way direction: out :-( She made 8 doublefaults and lost 6:2, 6:2... ough, hope to prevent myself from such faults in the future.
A)ggressive system:
Bet 5: Seppi to beat Kamke @ 1,13 - 16,6 pts to win 2,16 pts
Bet 6: Del Potro to beat Snobel @ 1,15 - 16,6 pts to win 2,49 pts
Bet 7: Dechy to beat Yuan @ 1,26 - 16,6 pts to win 4,32 pts
Bet 8: K Bondarenko to beat Fujiwara @ 1,21 - 16,6 pts to win 3,49 pts
Bets 5 and 6 are Wimbledon 1st round men, bets 7 and 8 are Wimbledon 1st round women.
I saw I made mistakes in first two days betting 25% instead of 20%. So I adjusted stakes to my initial staking plan. Hope to recover from loss of day 2.
Results day 3:
A)ggressive system:
Bet 5: won
Bet 6: won
Bet 7: won
Bet 8: won
Starting bank: 100 pts
Current bank: 95,52 pts
Spare bank: 2,78 pts
Bank decrease: 4,48%
Finally the clean sweep today. Didn't look so in the beginning, Seppi, Dechy and Bondarenko all lost first set, but they prevailed in the end.
Now, clearing the system rules as I progress: my spare bank didn't increase this time, because I am still down with the bank, so I try to recover into positive territory as quickly as possible. So anytime below 100 point = no spare bank increase, anything above 100 = spare bank increases.
Will try to add tomorrow's selections in a couple of hours.
nice 4-0 yesterday. I hope all goes well for you. I hope you build up a nice bankroll quickly then cash out.
Not trying to discourage you in any way, but with your system an 0-4 day will end your experiment quickly.
If I may ask what are your goals? Is it to build up quickly and then cash out or is this long term for you? If it is long term, I think most of us will agree that you will need to adjust your bet % in each match in order to last long term. You seem to really know what you are talking about and I would hate to see a day come where a few people just have an off day and it kills your bankroll. It happens to everyone sooner or later if you bet long enough. Things happen as they say.
Like I said good luck with your picks hope all works out well for you.
I surely want to build big bankroll quickly but not to cash out quickly and get away ;-)
I am aware of volatility this system may and WILL bring. What goes up, must come down, sang Tom Petty and that is true. So as well as I can expect huge leaps up, I surely will experience big drops as well. You are true, if I have bad run of 4 or 5, it can kill my bankroll. This is why I have "spare bankroll". This should help to prevent from going totally busted, becuase when "main bankroll" gets killed, the "spare bankroll" should be used to start over or just cash the profits.
I think this system has the potential to multiply the bankroll many times, so I hope it will show soon.
Results day 4:
A)ggressive system:
Bet 9: lost
Bet 10: lost
Bet 11: won
Starting bank: 100 pts
Current bank: 64,2 pts
Spare bank: 2,78 pts
Bank decrease: 35,8%
Very poor day. Makarova totally destroyed, no chance. Srebotnik faced couple of matchpoints before finally losing 16:14!!! in the final set (no tiebreak in final set).
After reviewing just these 15 selections I made in total, WTA picks are loosing, ATP gives until now only winners. Should I focus more on ATP or abandon WTA completely? I will decide based on more results.
B) system
Bet 3: void
Bet 4: won
Starting bank: 100 pts
Current bank: 100,62 pts
Bank increase: 0,62%
OK, OK, bad luck with Troicki bet. Lapentti retired being 1 set down and 0:4 in the second set. Shame for me as I calculate results based on Pinnacle rules.
The system performs badly at the moment. What I am thinking about is setting MIN limits of stakes per match. I mean being down almost 40% and splitting rest of 60 points to 20%-stakes, it is still possible to climb back, but two more losses and the stakes would be so low and combined that wit low prices... it would take ages to recover. If my bankroll gets killed totally - hopefully not, I will try to start a new round and count my negative bankroll in it.
For today, only flat stakes system, didn't find anything convincing enough for aggressive one:
Selections day 5:
B) system
Bet 5: Gicquel to beat Bozoljac @ 1,4 - 2 pts to win 0,8 pt
Bet 6: Verdasco to beat O. Rochus @ 1,19 - 2 pts to win 0,38 pts
B) system
Bet 8: F Lopez to beat Reynolds @ 1,36 - 2 pts to win 0,72 pt
Until now, all men's matches except one voided were winning. Anyway, in the last couple of days I am unable to find convincing match for system A. I decided to bet at least 10 units, even if I drop under 50 points, because of reasons I mentioned before. Even now, because of low odds on matches I am focusion on, it will take around 15 consecutive winning selections to bounce back to profit... tough but still possible.
Adding:
A)ggressive system:
Bet 12: Baghdatis to beat Stadler @ 1,19 - 13 pts to win 2,47 pts
Starting bank: 100 pts
Current bank: 66,67 pts
Spare bank: 2,78 pts
Bank decrease: 33,33%
B) system
Bet 8: won
Starting bank: 100 pts
Current bank: 103,64 pts
Bank increase: 3,64%
Still more than 30 points to go in A) system... will try to focus more on men's matches as I seem to be more reliable there, up to now 11 winners, 0 losers...
Linear Mode
